The GOP Rendezvous with Apocalypse: Why a brokered convention will be half of...
Posted at Bleeding Heartland:I am pretty invested in the Sanders campaign. My hopes for him tonight are realistic: if he wins 4 tonight he will have more than enough to move on.I have written before...
View ArticlePer RCP Clinton leads by 205: In 2008 there was a 218 delegate shift to Obama...
We have hear plenty from those who say this is all over and Sanders cannot win. I will have more to say about that in a few days, but:Per RealClearPolitics Clinton has a 205 pledged delegate lead.On...
View ArticleIs the Front Page REALLY going to ignore what Hillary said about Reagan and...
I arrived in New York City in 1987. As anyone who lived there will remember, one of the lasting memories of the period is of the steady parade of funerals you went to. There was always the friend of...
View ArticleThanks to Welfare Reform, 500,000 to 1 million people will lose food stamps...
It flies below radar — seldom mentioned or discussed. Never, IIRC, on the front page here.Welfare Reform — the ultimate New Democrat policy. But because Welfare policy is complicated, and it only...
View ArticleThe worrying cross-tabs for Clinton against the GOP, and the landslide that...
I am going to write more about this next week, but I think it is worth noting the national polling. Some will argue that it is irrelevant at this stage — but the leader at this point has won 9 of 11...
View ArticleAn open letter to Bernie Sanders and Jeff Weaver from a Sanders Iowa Precinct...
Bernie and Jeff,Well, let me address you Bernie. Jeff I have never met you. Bernie, I met you in 1980. I was a UVM student at the time working on the Andersen campaign (please hold your laughter). I...
View Article70% of Democrats do not believe the primary campaign is hurting the party
The last few days have been interesting. Blogger and pundit alike seemed very intent on telling us that Sanders is hurting the party.If I took all the comments here seriously I might think the Party...
View ArticleClear Movement to Sanders in California: Field and Marist, Clinton +2
Two polls in the last 12 hours, both from very respected pollsters, show a tightening race in California:RCP Average4/18 - 5/31----50.242.8Clinton +7.4Field5/26- 314543Clinton +2NBC/WSJ/Marist5/29 -...
View ArticleThe best pollster there is has Clinton +9
Pew is out with a new poll showing the followingClinton 51, Trump 42Clinton 48, Trump 36, Johnson 11The best pollster since 2004 has been Pew. Their record: Year Final PollActual ResultRank 2012...
View ArticleState Polls: Quinippiac an outlier, Clinton leads by 4.17
In 2008 I began comparing state polling averages to National Polling averages. I did this for two reasons:1. Every time a bad national poll would come out people would freak out.2. There are far...
View ArticleBill Ayers wrote Melania Trump's speech (obviously)
By now most have heard the Melania Trump lifted whole sections of Michelle Obama’s speech. But as usual the MSM is engaged in a cover-up. As the conservative press has made clear, Bill Ayers, noted...
View ArticleWhy 538 is wrong, and why Clinton is in better shape than Kerry was
538 wrote:Based on the polls, we think the model is setting those odds about right. The race is a long way from being a toss-up, but a 3 or 4 percentage point lead heading into the conventions isn’t...
View ArticlePost GOP Convention Polls: Clinton will still win (so don't freak out)
The table below summarizes the GOP bounce thus far in the four polls I have seen. It also tries to put it in context. Right now Trump looks like he got about an average bounce from the Convention....
View ArticleI was in the Hall in Philadelphia: This was EASILY the best speech
I was lucky enough to see three great speeches in Philadelphia: Bernie Sanders spoke to the VT/NH/ME Delegations in the morning. It was emotional for obvious reasons. I saw President Obama on...
View ArticlePublic Policy Polling: Clinton +5, undecideds lean Democratic
The first quality poll (RABA has never polled before this cycle) has come out. The details:The last PPP had Clinton up 4, suggesting the conventions had little effect on the trial heat Clinton Trump...
View ArticlePPP, Mourning Consult, Raba all show Dem Bounce, BUT favorablility numbers...
On Monday here I posted a diary about convention bounces, telling everyone not to freak out, that bounces were predictable, and that we would be ahead on Friday. I told you so.The table below...
View ArticleTo my fellow Sanders supporters, what are the best arguments for Clinton?
This diary is really aimed at my fellow Sanders supporters. As the quote from PPP below indicates, we still have work to do to get our fellow Sanders supporters on board. So this is really just a...
View ArticleGOP Strategist: "Trump supporters are single childless men who masturbate to...
There is nothing so sweet as when the bully gets his just rewards. There is an entire of genre of movies about it, from Pulp Fiction (my personal favorite, when Marsellus gets “medievil” on the...
View ArticleSanders endorsed House candidate wins Primary
The meaning of the Sanders campaign is not going to be determined by his lost in the primaries. In Quinnipiac polling Sanders voters made it clear: his campaign was more about creating a lasting...
View ArticleStiglitz: Income for 90% of Americans has been stagnant for over 30 years
Most are consumed, properly so, by the election. But what Stiglitz wrote yesterday deserves reading:One answer occasionally heard from the neoliberal economists who advocated for these policies is...
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