On Monday here I posted a diary about convention bounces, telling everyone not to freak out, that bounces were predictable, and that we would be ahead on Friday.
I told you so.
The table below summarizes the polling we have thus far, along with a history of bounces.
A couple of things to note about this table. We do not have CNN or CBS national polling. The CBS poll we do have is a battleground panel, and I include here, but it is not the same as CBS polling.
Bounce ComparisonBut in this cycle I think these numbers are understating the degree of change in the race. As I noted on Monday “Both Clinton and Trump are very disliked. The Conventions offer their best chance as reversing this trend”. The biggest news here is not the trail heats, but the favorability numbers. Clinton has seen a significant increase in her favorable numbers. In the end we vote for candidates we like, or at least don’t hate. I continue to believe in the end this will be an 8-12 point race. I believe that because the cross-tabs show that the undecided are very heavily under 35, and tend to support President Obama. When those voters come home, if they already haven’t, the gap will widen.
Favorable RatingsThis really is the most important data. Both pollsters show a significant increase in Clinton's approval ratings — bigger than the bounce in the trial heats. Eventually one will catch up with the other.