Two polls in the last 12 hours, both from very respected pollsters, show a tightening race in California:
| RCP Average | 4/18 - 5/31 | -- | -- | 50.2 | 42.8 | Clinton +7.4 |
| Field | 5/26- 31 | 45 | 43 | Clinton +2 | ||
| NBC/WSJ/Marist | 5/29 - 5/31 | 557 LV | 49 | 47 | Clinton +2 | |
| KABC/SurveyUSA | 5/19 - 5/22 | 803 LV | 3.5 | 57 | 39 | Clinton +18 |
| PPIC | 5/13 - 5/22 | 552 LV | 5.7 | 46 | 44 | Clinton +2 |
| Hoover/Golden State Poll | 5/4 - 5/16 | 694 LV | -- | 51 | 38 | Clinton +13 |
| FOX News | 4/18 - 4/21 | 623 LV | 4.0 | 48 | 46 | Clinton +2 |
SurveyUSA is an A rated pollster. But ever since this poll and a later poll in August of 2004 showing Kerry and Bush within 1, I have been skeptical of their work in California. No one else in 2004 saw California close but SurveyUSA. In 2012 they, along with everyone else significantly understated Obama’s margin in California. Marist is a B+ rated pollster, and Field is an A+ pollster that has long been regarded as the gold standard in California. In 2014 PPIC was off by 2.8 in the Governors race — I could not find their rating.
For Sanders winning California means more delegates at the Convention, and more influence. California is about as diverse an electorate as exists, and winning it would show he can win in states with large minority populations.
In looking at the cross-tabs it is hard to escape the conclusion that this race will turn on whether the young vote. In the PPIC poll Sanders wins 18-44 66-27, Clinton wins those over 45 59-28.
Sanders cannot in my view win the nomination. But that does not mean winning California isn’t important both in terms of increasing his leverage within the Party and in terms of building an organization that can last beyond this nomination fight.
Updated to add link to Field poll.