In 2008 I began comparing state polling averages to National Polling averages. I did this for two reasons:
1. Every time a bad national poll would come out people would freak out.
2. There are far more state and national polls. In 3 cycles, 1996, 2000 and 2008 state polling was a far better indicator of the race than national polling was.
There have been a large number of polls recently. So I performed the same analysis again.
I have not added the Morning Consult numbers, and the national numbers are just RCP.
As I have seen in prior years, the national numbers and the state numbers are telling a different story. Note that the state numbers suggest a more stable race — and though Trump has seemed to close the gap, he still trails by more than Romney lost to Obama.
Let’s focus on the pollsters. Quinnipiac is a clear outlier here. They show nearly a 5 point lean to the GOP at this point. It is not uncommon over time for this to happen, and it is worth noting that Quinnipiac actually leaned Democratic at this point in 2012. But the evidence is unmistakable.
I will note do a deep dive into the Electoral College result of all of this. But I have posted a 270to win map showing one result of the most recent numbers. Clinton has clear leads in all polling in Colorado and Virginia. In many ways that is the most important development from recent polling. Without them it is hard to see how Trump wins.
One key thing to note: if Clinton wins Colorado and Virginia Trump MUST win Pennsylvania, an unlikely result.