Marist: VA+12, NC+9!!, CO +14, Fl+5 (Updated w/links to cross-tabs)
Wow. Remember, Marist is an A rated pollster by 538.The NC number is incredible, and makes the recent SC and Ga numbers believable.It is always useful to compare state numbers to the implied shift...
View ArticleTexas Poll: Clinton leads 60-35 among voters under 45
In the end, maybe this is the single most important number this cycle. The GOP without Texas would struggle to be a major party. Take Texas and its 36 electoral votes and the GOP would be unlikely...
View ArticleIf only those under 45 voted, polls suggest he would struggle to win a state.
One of the things that has emerged since 2008 is the extent to which the young are really a completely different electorate from their elders. Obama won those under 30 66-32 in 2008, and 60-37. I...
View ArticleThe top 10% own 76% of all wealth, the bottom 50% only 1%
Sometimes you see statistics on income and wealth inequality and the mind boggles. Bernie Sanders asked the CBO to produce a report on family wealth. It found: www.commondreams.org/...As of 2013,...
View ArticleFlorida Progressive Primary Blog
Talked to Susan Smith (joined here in 2002, has long since given up posting and reading here, she is head of the Florida Progressive Caucus)Races to watch:Florida SenateSmith liked big supporter of...
View ArticleThird Party votes in the last 10 days
I wrote this at Bleeding Heartland— it is a review of the tendency of third parties to collapse late. It is worth the read. I have long believed in this race that what is out is young, and they will...
View ArticleThe State of the Race
In 2008 I did state polling summaries at Open Left. That analysis originated from work I had done in 1996 which suggested the State polling was far more accurate than National Polling. In 1996 the...
View ArticleFlorida Early Voting Projection: Clinton +2.05 (+126K) : Will be VERY Close
Before I write anything else: GOTV. I live in NH now and canvassed yesterday. I work legal protection Tuesday (which I hope will not be as bad as Florida). I am going to call into Florida this...
View ArticleThe best analysis of American Politics comes from a Turkish Immigrant
Her name is Zeynep Tufecki. She writes on occasion for the New York Times. She has been brilliant — the best analyst I have read this election cycle. BY FAR.Her diagnosis is the best I have read. I...
View ArticleDNC War Room to be run by Clinton Rapid Response Director (Really???)
One of the issues the party will need to face is how to deal with incompetence in DC.I was not a Clinton supporter, but I do think she was badly served by her campaign. The tales of the incompetence...
View ArticleTrump is using the Soviet Playbook, and that should scare the hell out of you
I have a longstanding fascination with the Soviet Union. There are a lot of different reasons for that: some political and some artistic and cultural.So on twitter I follow "Soviet Visuals" which...
View ArticleThe image that defines the struggle
It has been a brutal few months. Part of what has made is so infuriating is the sense that we being led by someone with no idea of what America is, and what makes it exception (if indeed we ever...
View ArticleIf we cannot stop this nominee, there is better than a 60% chance Roe will be...
If we are unable to stop the nominee, one can safely say that it becomes probable that one of the 5 current justices who support Roe vs. Wade and Obergefell will die, and be replaced with a Justice who...
View ArticleFormer Chief Economist at Bear Sterns to become Under-Secretary of the Treasury
You can’t make this up. Politico notes that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is filling out his team.From Politico:Senior Goldman Sachs banker Jim Donovan is under strong consideration for deputy Treasury...
View ArticleDNC undoes Obama lobbyist ban: the most important thing the DNC did yesterday
A smart party would have found someone not connected to the past primary war. As my Icon shows, I am a Bernie guy. Instead the DNC fight was a bit of a replay of the primary fight. I have pretty...
View ArticleThe data about young African American turnout in '16 is worrying. Very worrying.
The dominant narrative since the election has been about the rural (read white) vote. I think that is right and it is important to understand why we lost voters who voted for Obama previously.Less...
View ArticleSource for Trump UK spying allegation is same person behind the Michelle...
By this point most are aware of Trump’s idiotic and false statement about the UK spying on Trump on behalf of Barack Obama. As Politico notes:Larry Johnson, a former CIA analyst and blogger,...
View ArticleDid threat of a primary force Sen. Nelson's (FL) hand on Gorsuch? It may have.
Politico notes yesterday Senator Nelson’s announcement:By announcing on Monday his intention to filibuster Gorsuch, Nelson raised questions about the judge's path to 60 votes and revealed a shift in...
View ArticleClinton calls for air strikes on Syria, Imposition of No Fly zone
In retaliation for a gassing of civilians, the US launched 70 Tomahawk missiles on a Syrian Air base. From CNN: There can be no dispute that Syria used banned chemical weapons ... and ignored the...
View ArticleSyria polling confirms: Republicans only like war if they get to start it
The hypocrisy is sort of stunning. So let’s compare the polling on the latest Syrian Airstrike against the polling when Obama sought approval from Congress to attack Syria for the use of chemical...
View Article