Pew is out with a new poll showing the following
Clinton 51, Trump 42
Clinton 48, Trump 36, Johnson 11
The best pollster since 2004 has been Pew. Their record:
| Final Poll | Actual Result | Rank |
| Obama+3 | Obama +3.9 | 1 (tied with ABC) |
| Obama+6 | Obama 7.3 | 2 (tied with Rasmussen, GWU) |
| Bush+3 | Bush +2.4 | 3 |
| Bush+2 | Gore +.25 | 3 (tied with many) |
| Clinton+13 | Clinton +8.5 | 3 (Zogby was only pollster within 3) |
My database of national polling from 1968 to now is here.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TA4NktYbU_qtvRKnIaacJOYDIoidLZTabKW5wobUTT0/edit
This is close to my projection based on state polling. Based on the 36 polls from June of this year, the predicted Clinton margin is 6.9.
That method was proven far more accurate than a national polling average in 1996, 2000 and 2012. In 2012 it consistently showed an Obama lead while national polling at times showed a tied race.
The data for this is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IWl01Ik9A2EyaRAgrd0jFBUPMjZS7QCoUYZyhd7C4ns/edit#gid=715351163