One of the things that has emerged since 2008 is the extent to which the young are really a completely different electorate from their elders. Obama won those under 30 66-32 in 2008, and 60-37. I posted yesterday about the poll from Texas.
But the Trump candidacy has offered a new low for the GOP among the young. In the last YouGov poll, Trump’s approval rating among the young was 69-28. Those under 45 simply cannot stand Trump.
So I started looking at state polling. The table is below:
Polling since Democratic ConventionThe numbers suggest the death of the GOP as a major party in this country. These margins are amazing” +20 point margins in Florida, Texas, Colorado and Arizona.
There are shifts here that are interesting. In some of the lower Midwest, it appears the generational divide is smaller. It is tempting to attribute this to race to some degree, but the exit polls will resolve whether it is real or a function of polling.
But you look at these numbers and you have to ask, in a race under 45 where would Trump win? He would struggle, I think, to break 100 electoral votes.