Wow. Remember, Marist is an A rated pollster by 538.
The NC number is incredible, and makes the recent SC and Ga numbers believable.
It is always useful to compare state numbers to the implied shift from 2012:
Colorado, Obama win by 5.3, represents an 8.6 shift. Obama won by 3.85, so this implies a national lead of 12.4
Florida cross tabs are here
North Carolina cross tabs are here
Colorado cross tabs are here
Virginia cross tabs are here
Florida, shift of 4.1, implies lead of 7.8
NC, shift of 11, implies a lead of 14.85
VA, shift of 9.1, implies a lead of 13
Obama’s approval ratings in these states:
| 52 | 42 |
| 52 | 40 |
| 49 | 44 |
| 50 | 43 |
Let’s take each state in turn. Marist is a blowout number here. Not consistent with other polling.
North CarolinaVirginia, in line with Yougov. Raba has vanish from Realclearpolitics.
VirginiaFlorida, in line with Suffolk. Quinnipiac has leaned right this cycle.
Colorado is the only number post convention.
xNew NBC/WSJ/Marist pollsCO: HRC 46, Trump 32 (+14)FL: HRC 44, Trump 39 (+5)NC: HRC 48, Trump 39 (+9)VA: HRC 46, Trump 33 (+13)Aug 4-10
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) August 12, 2016