Last Night Makes Clear: The House is In Play
Let’s start with some simple math from last night: 2016 Margin, MT-AL GOP +16 Average Generic Ballot Dems +9 2016 National House Margin GOP +1.1 Project SwinG from 2016 until Now Dems +10.1 Projected...
View ArticleLive Blog: Labour completes largest comeback in modern history, Hung...
The UK political world is in shock.Update: Betting Markets now have Corbyn is now the favorite to be the next PM.www.independent.co.uk/...Here is the exit poll, and a model I have created which can be...
View Article83% of Democrats Support Medicare for All
Quinnipiac’s latest poll has the most recent numbers on Medicare for All: Quinnipiac poll These numbers aren’t a surprise. A previous poll had 81% of Democrats in favor of single payer.Among rank and...
View ArticleLast Night's Heroes: They are all Democrats
This morning I read everywhere about Murkowski, Collins and McCain. Democrats everywhere are hailing them as heroes. But in truth they didn’t risk their careers. McCain was re-elected in 2016,...
View ArticleThe most reliable Hurricane model predicts SIXTY inches of rain in Texas
When I lived in Florida, I learned to watch the Gulf very carefully. I was a regular reader of Jeff Masters at the weather underground. I can still remember his writing on Katrina. Part of lving in...
View ArticleA fight we can win: only 22% of REPUBLICANS want Dreamers deported
Seldom has a President painted himself into a corner as Donald Trump has on DACA. What is astonishing is how out of step he is WITH MEMBERS OF HIS OWN PARTY:By the way, Morning Consult’s final poll in...
View ArticleBreaking: AZ Governor supports O'care repeal, suggests McCain will vote yes...
I am writing to emphasis the URGENCY around the current effort in the Senate.As Sen Harris suggests: xWe need all hands on deck over the next few days & weeks. Call your reps & tell them to...
View ArticleVirginia 4 days out: a close race with a bad trend line. GOTV.
If you are in Virginia please GOTV (we will get to some of what has happened in this race in a second). I don’t agree with some of the actions of the activists groups in VA, though I guess I...
View ArticleBoom!! Jones and Roy Moore now tied in latest AL-Senate poll
From Decision Desk:“With the special election just weeks away, Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones are essentially tied in the latest Opinion-Savvy poll of likely Alabama voters. In the...
View ArticleAll you need to know about politics and the GOP Tax Cut in one chart
American Politics in summary:1. Rich people give donations to politicians2. Politicians give things to the rich.It really is that simple.
View ArticleThe richest 3 Americans are getting a tax cut, and they own more wealth than...
This is a short diary. I wrote one on Friday about the tax cuts rich Republican donors were getting. Fundamentally I do not think people really get how extreme the ownership of wealth is in the...
View ArticlePoll: If sexual harassment is proven, 61% support Trump's removal
I have long thought that the most likely way Trump is removed is not a result of the Mueller investigation, but through a proven instance of sexual harassment. Quinnipiac University National Poll,...
View ArticlePoll: 70% of Americans want an investigation of harrasment claims again Trump
From the beginning of #metoo, it was INEVITABLE that the focus would be turned on Trump. There are by varying accounts at least 11 and as many as 20 women who have accused Trump of sexual...
View Article8 PM Exit poll: Jones +1.5 (my estimate), NYT estimate on real votes Jones...
More coming, but based on numbers from MSNBC, here is my estimate: From 8PM Exit Poll I am looking for two more pieces of data: the 18-29 share of the vote and the gender gap.This is basically a dead...
View Article10 years ago tonight: What I saw at a revolution in the Iowa Caucuses
Ten years ago tonight I was in Urbandale Iowa for the Iowa Caucuses. I got there 1 hour early - I was for Edwards. Precinct captains met the field staff in the afternoon. I was handed a packet and a...
View ArticleLive Blog: House Bill to avoid shutdown fails in Senate, 5 Dems vote for it,...
Update: I am watching the vote on CNN. Dem Yes votes: Jones, Manchin, Donnelly, Heitkamp, McCaskillGOP No Votes: Lee, Graham, PaulAll of the Senators in the table below EXCEPT Tester voted yes....
View ArticleCan anything save Trump?
Consider three quotes:“It’s the economy stupid” James Carville, 1992 “Events dear boy, Events” Attributed to Harold Macmillan, British Prime Minister“That the prince must consider, as has been in part...
View ArticleBudget Deal Raises Defense Spending by More Than the Cost of Making Public...
The numbers should outrage everyone Just listing them shows what an incredible waste this budget is. We are continually told we cannot afford decent infrastructure or free university tuition.And...
View ArticleFlorida Felon Voting Rights Restoration Amedment leads 71-22!
No other single vote in 2018 has the potential to remake the 2020 Electoral College as much as the felon voting rights restoration amendment. The numbers speak for themselves and I will get into them...
View Article‘No Way To Prevent This,’ Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens
The only thing to say about what happened in Florida is from the Onion. x‘No Way To Prevent This,’ Says Only Nation Where This Regularly Happens...
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