I wrote this at Bleeding Heartland— it is a review of the tendency of third parties to collapse late. It is worth the read.
I have long believed in this race that what is out is young, and they will tend to come home to Clinton late. As a result, I think her margin is likely north of 5.
As the table below shows, the Johnson+Stein vote is larger than the Clinton/Trump margin in 14 states with 178 Electoral Votes. This vote is much more likely to break for Clinton than Trump, but as i note in the article the Nader vote collapse in 2000 was one reason Gore closed against Bush.
This is the sheet I have been using to track the race. The polling includes the PPP polls from this afternoon. It is based on the BBC Swingometer.
It is close, but we are going to win.
I will be spending the weekend working...