When I lived in Florida, I learned to watch the Gulf very carefully. I was a regular reader of Jeff Masters at the weather underground. I can still remember his writing on Katrina.
Part of lving in Florida is learning to learn about the forecasts and the models. The two best are the Euro and the GFS.
So consider below the prediction of 60 inches of rain. It is unimaginable. Cataclysmic.
xLet me translate this: the most reliable hurricane model is projecting 60 inches of rain for Texas - an unimaginable number. https:/t.co/VGFep0vv40
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) August 25, 2017I always recomment following Jeff Masters, who is here.
He cites another piece that is worth reading. Pro-publica did a piece on the effect of a hurricane hitting Houston. This isn't likely to be a direct hit on Houston, but the size of the hurricane and the amount of rain may make some of what is described possible. This is Jeff Masters summary, which is disturbing to say the least:
”Official NHC storm surge guidance, which extends out to 72 hours (currently through Monday morning, August 28), is not intended to depict the longer-term threat—perhaps extending well beyond Monday—posed just inland by huge amounts of freshwater blocked by the surge from flowing to the sea. Current storm surge warnings include Brazoria and Galveston, with a 2 - 4 foot surge expected from Harvey’s initial approach; however, more widespread flooding may occur in the Houston/Galveston area early next week. Storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, who is riding out the hurricane on Galveston Island, highlights the potential for catastrophic flooding in the Galveston/Houston area if Harvey moves back out over the ocean, intensifies, then moves toward northeast, just offshore of Galveston, as the European model is predicting. In a Friday morning blog post, Dr. Needham points out that Harvey is likely to produce a storm surge for Galveston and Bolivar Islands that is less severe than during Hurricane Ike (2008)—which produced a surge of up to 19 - 22 feet—but far more prolonged. The multi-day onshore flow and storm surge coupled with extreme inland rainfall would push enormous amounts of water from several directions into Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel. The result could be widespread, possibly unprecedented flooding early next week across southeastern parts of the Houston metropolitan area along and near the bay and the ship channel.”