Let’s start with some simple math from last night:
| Dems +9 |
| GOP +1.1 |
| Dems +10.1 |
| GOP +5.9 |
| GOP +6.1 |
So put aside all of the discussion about the Montana race for a second. Forget about the money advantage the GOP had, the respective candidates, the last minute punch of a reporter.
What happened last night was right in line with what would have been predicted.
And what that portends is a Democratic wave. My estimate is here.
If you take the average generic ballot (Dem +9) this is what you get:
Project House based on current generic ballotBut this underestimates Democratic chances because:
1. Between now and November 2018 there will be a number of GOP House members who retire. In fact, one harbinger of a wave is that politicians decide to jump ship rather than face a tough race.
2. The analysis here suggests there are an additional 15 seats where the predicted margin is less than 7.
3. The analysis is dependent on a few polls, and there sure looks like one is an outlier. If you exclude the last YouGov poll you get a predicted House of 215-220.
After 2016 I have sworn off happy talk. The truth is gerrymandering makes taking the House tough.
But on these numbers it can be done.
BTW — Dailykos elections work is awesome — I built this estimate in about an hour based on their work.