We interrupt the circular firing squad that is the Democratic Primary (Yes, I’m a participant) to note the CNN Poll this morning that Shows Trump at 41, Cruz at 19, Rubio 8 and the rest below that. ABC shows something similar: Trump at 37, Cruz at 31, and at 11.
I have long believed in something called the 40/30/25 rule. That rule provides that when a front runner is above 40, they almost always win in a multi-candidate race. If their lead is between 40 and 25 it will be close, but they probably win the closes they get to 40. Under 25 and the usually lose.
The graphic poll shows the pre-Iowa polling for every GOP race since 1980. If you were to add the Democrats to that list, you would find 4 other instances of front runners over 40: Carter in ‘80, Mondale in ‘84, Gore in ‘00 and Clinton in ‘08. The only one to lose was Clinton.
So 7 of 8 national front runners over 40 since 1980 have won.
GOP NATIONAL Polling Before IowaI think the GOP is going to get absolutely killed with Trump as their nominee. Trump’s negatives in the last poll were 29-58 negative. In fact, 47% had a VERY negative opinion of him. These are historic numbers. No one with those numbers is getting elected.
And yet the GOP seems destined to jump off a cliff. This is my latest delegate Project for the Republicans. The calculations are here. There is a clear trend in both national and state polling to Trump.