A New NH PPP poll came out today. It is shown below with the other polling. Very little movement since the start of December in the prior PPP poll. The variance isn’t that unusual in NH polling this far out.
As I wrote in 2007, and Nate Silver used both my analysis and his own, Iowa has an enormous impact in NH results when the front runner loses. The interaction is a little complex: part of it is winning and part of it is how you do versus expectations (See Hart in ‘84, who finished second 30 points behind Mondale, but still go an enormous bounce out of Iowa). As I wrote in previously, if Sanders beats Clinton in Iowa he probably wins New Hampshire, though Clinton still won NH after loosing Iowa.
| Pollster | Dates | MOE | Sanders | Clinton | O’Malley | ||
| PPP (D) | 1/4 - 1/6 | 480 LV | 4.5 | 44 | 47 | 3 | Clinton +3 |
| ARG | 12/20 - 12/20 | 600 LV | 4.0 | 43 | 46 | 3 | Clinton +3 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 12/14 - 12/17 | 458 LV | 7.5 | 56 | 42 | 1 | Sanders +14 |
| Boston Herald | 12/13 - 12/17 | 410 LV | 4.8 | 48 | 46 | 2 | Sanders +2 |
| CNN/WMUR | 11/30 - 12/7 | 370 LV | 5.1 | 50 | 40 | 1 | Sanders +10 |
| PPP (D) | 11/30 - 12/2 | 458 RV | 4.6 | 42 | 44 | 8 | Clinton +2 |
For those interested, here is New Hampshire polling for Gore versus Bradly. New Hampshire was Feb 1st:
| 1/11/2000 | ARG | 46 | 43 |
| 1/12/2000 | Dartmouth | 49 | 43 |
| 1/14/2000 | Newsweek | 50 | 36 |
The GOP race is clear as mud. I would note Bush is on the air continuously here in NH, and this is the first poll that has him at 10. In historical terms, a front runner under 30 a month away frequently loses NH. The GOP bounce out of Iowa has been more limited in the last 3 cycles: largely because the Iowa GOP electorate is very different from the NH electorate. Iowa probably eliminates Carson, Huckabee and Santorum, which may help Cruz marginally. I still think one of Christie, Rubio, Bush and Kasich is going to win New Hampshire, and that in turn will set-up a two way fight down the road between that candidate and Cruz.
| RCP Average | 12/13 - 1/6 | 27.0 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | Trump +13.2 |
| PPP (D) | 1/4 - 1/6 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -- | -- | Trump +14 |
| ARG | 12/20 - 12/20 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- | Trump +6 |
| CBS News/YouGov | 12/14 - 12/17 | 32 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Trump +18 |
| Boston Herald | 12/13 - 12/17 | 26 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Trump +14 |
As I have written many times before, National Polling is junk at this point. In addition, Iowa polling this far out isn’t very predictive (only half who lead 30 days out won).
You can count on volatility.