Should I win a second term a big reason I will win a second term is because the Republican nominee and the Republican Party have so alienated the fastest-growing demographic group in the country, the Latino community.
Barack Obama, October 25th, 2012 to the Des Moines Register
The most interesting poll I have seen in a month comes this morning from the Field Poll in California. The comparison below isn’t apples to apples: California is far more Democratic than the rest of the Country. But among Hispanics (Obama won 72% in California and 71% Nationally) and African Americans (96% in California vrs. 93% nationally. ) Obama’s totals were nearly identical to his National totals.
Look at the cross-tabs of Trump’s favorables and unfavorables among different groups, and compare them to Romney in 2012.
These numbers were BEFORE Trump began airing an add showing Mexicans storming the border.
Some will remember that in the aftermath of the 2012 loss, the GOP Leadership concluded that it could not win unless it was able to compete more effectively with minorities. As one of the writers of the report noted, the GOP is: “continually marginalizing itself and unless changes are made it will be increasingly difficult for Republicans to win another presidential election in the near future”
Rubio’s numbers suggest the negative image Trump is creating is starting to hurt the GOP brand generally.
It is possible that the 2016 election is being decided in January
| 28 | 67 | 34 | 46 | 56 | 37 |
| 10 | 85 | 28 | 43 | 27 | 53 |
| 11 | 83 | 16 | 58 | 15 | 68 |
| 21 | 76 | 21 | 76 |
The above is a comparison of Field Poll of California versus SurveyUSA Poll taken just before the 2012 election.