I firmly believe most what is written about primary polling is nonsense. The following from today's UNH New Hampshire Poll shows why:
After the end of summer vacations and the return of children to school, the Primary season in New Hampshire has officially begun. But that does not mean that voters in the Granite State have decided who they will finally support in the New Hampshire primary , which is scheduled to be held February 9 , 2016 New Hampshire voters typically decide who they will vote for in the last weeks, or days of the campaign and it is no surprise that few voters have firmly decided who they will support in 2016. Currently, only 25 % of likely Democratic primary voters say they have definitely decided who they will support,28 % are leaning toward a candidate, and almost half (47%) are still trying to decide who to support It's even lower in the GOP primary: there only 13% of the electorate has definitely decided.In every cycle front runner supporters tell us the polls to say the race is over. Clinton people are doing this, and I would too if I were active on her behalf (I am undecided). But everyone should realize that for what it is: mostly nonsense. The results you read about are based on voter perceptions that are VERY ill formed. Often they are a function of recent media attention.
Think UNH is wrong? Here is the 2008 Iowa exit poll. Note OVER HALF did not decide who they were going to vote for until the last month and 27% didn't decide until the last week When did you decide Today: 11% Last 3 days: 9% Sometime last week: 7% In the last month: 24% Before that 49%
So here is a suggestion to supporters of one candidate: focus your energy on why your candidate is better. Look, I am as poll obsessed as anyone on earth, and I will follow their twists and turns as much as anyone.
But it would be great if someone could articulate why their candidate is better.
Hell, I am an undecided NH voter: why is your candidate better.