So in a few hours the Democratic Debate will take place. Many pundits have been downplaying the debate, suggesting that debates seldom matter in primaries.
This is, of course, nonsense. Rick Perry, for example, was leading the GOP race in 2011 until in a debate he was unable to remember which agencies he wanted to close.
But let me offer another example. In 1984 I was a youngster working on my first campaign - for Gary Hart. I worked in New Hampshire where we were always well organized. But one heard rumblings about Iowa: where we were nowhere in the polls and where rumors of organizational problems were frequently repeated.
On February 12th, 1984 the 8 candidates participated in a debate in Des Moines. The write up in the New York Times did not suggest and immediate winner.
But there was one. Taken below is a CBS poll taken in the days after the debate. Hart went from 2 to 7, which hardly sounds like a huge leap forward. But in fact, the debate re-made the Democratic race. Hart's exposure allowed him to build momentum. As Samuel Plotkin the "Reasoning Voter" noted:
Hart went from no better position than O'Malley or Webb are in in Iowa to second. By March 8th, after winning New Hampshire, he would take a 38-31 lead nationally.Yes, debates can matter, in ways not apparent to observers in the aftermath.